Tyler Lemon
1 win in 1 verified race at this venue. Recent form: 93.0.

THE CHOP SHOP HYPE MACHINE • RACE WEEK
UPCOMING RACE BEING PROJECTED
Every forecast, driver ranking, probability, and historical comparison below is for this scheduled race.
Our official-data forecast sets the stage. The track will settle the argument.
1 win in 1 verified race at this venue. Recent form: 93.0.
2 Top 5s in 2 venue starts • 69.8 form
10.0 points behind the forecast leader1 Top 5 in 3 venue starts • 67.6 form
12.9 points behind the forecast leaderJust 10.0 forecast-index points separate the top two.
65.6 forecast index • 1 verified track Top 5s
19 forecast drivers have matching venue results.
Evidence-based forecast, not a guaranteed result. Formula: 35% recent form + 30% same-venue history + 15% championship standings + 10% similar tracks + 10% consistency, incidents and reliability. No track history uses a neutral score rather than an invented result. Only drivers with current-series form are ranked.
Who is coming forward? Who might surprise? Who needs to turn things around? These picks come directly from official form and archive scores.
Best recent positions gained per race — an on-track momentum signal, not week-over-week ranking movement.
Recent positions lost per race. A warning sign, not a judgment of ability.
Strong positional gains among drivers ranked 6–15 in this forecast.
Lower-ranked drivers (16+) with the strongest recent Top-5 rates and track signals.
Drivers outside the Top 5 whose track/similar-track ratings outpace recent form.
Highest recent incident rates in the eligible field. A statistical risk signal, not a penalty or blame ruling.
Drivers outside the Top 4 whose overall forecast looks stronger than their recent form. These are not live Fantasy salaries.
The top five overall contenders based on the full five-factor forecast.
Model rankings meet race-week storylines. Each pick shows the supporting signal and confidence level.
Top-ranked five-factor forecast
78.6 forecast indexTrack rating stronger than recent form
36.1 forecast indexMidfield driver gaining positions
42.9 forecast indexStrongest mid-pack forecast
59.0 forecast indexStrong comparable-track rating
56.0 forecast indexElevated recent incident rate
19.7 forecast indexChampionship strength exceeds recent form
42.7 forecast indexRecent position losses invite a bounce-back
19.7 forecast indexHighest-ranked challenger outside Top 5
59.0 forecast indexStrong recent Top-5 consistency
78.6 forecast indexIncident-rate proxy; not an official MWI ranking
19.7 forecast indexTrack pedigree outside the favorites
45.9 forecast indexClosest challenger to the projected favorite
68.6 forecast indexLargest gap between venue history and form
65.6 forecast indexPositions gained per race; not lap-by-lap closing pace
42.9 forecast indexConsistency/form proxy, not pass-by-pass telemetry
78.6 forecast indexRelative qualifying estimate
78.6 forecast indexRecent Top-10 rate blended with field baseline
78.6 forecast indexForecasts are locked on their first pre-race publication. Comparisons appear only after official results are posted.
Recent audits: R5 Chicagoland (6.7 places average error)
For entertainment only: statistical model estimates, not bookmaker odds or wagering offers.
| DRIVER | WIN % ⓘ | TOP 10 % ⓘ | POLE % ⓘ | CONFIDENCE | INC / START ⓘ | CLOSING PROXY ⓘ | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lemon | 34.3% | 65.9% | 40.6% | Medium | 0.0 | +3.0 positions/start | Based on 9 combined evidence starts |
| R.B. Turner | 12.6% | 52.7% | 6.8% | Medium | 3.2 | -0.8 positions/start | Based on 12 combined evidence starts |
| Kevin Winker | 9.5% | 52.7% | 5.7% | High | 2.0 | -1.6 positions/start | Based on 13 combined evidence starts |
| Joshua Seigfried | 9.4% | 58.6% | 12.4% | Medium | 0.5 | -1.8 positions/start | Based on 12 combined evidence starts |
| Pat Green | 8.5% | 62.7% | 10.2% | High | 3.0 | +4.2 positions/start | Based on 14 combined evidence starts |
| Cameron D Derieux | 4.8% | 47.5% | 3.6% | Medium | 3.0 | +2.5 positions/start | Based on 17 combined evidence starts |
| Tyler Dudley | 4.4% | 36.4% | 6.2% | Medium | 3.5 | +5.5 positions/start | Based on 9 combined evidence starts |
| Robert Dudley | 3.6% | 52.7% | 2.2% | Medium | 5.0 | +2.8 positions/start | Based on 12 combined evidence starts |
| Fred Chase | 3.1% | 47.5% | 3.3% | Medium | 4.0 | +3.0 positions/start | Based on 11 combined evidence starts |
| Brad Dove | 2.2% | 52.7% | 3.5% | High | 2.8 | +3.8 positions/start | Based on 17 combined evidence starts |
| John Hammond5 | 1.3% | 40.9% | 1.7% | Medium | 6.7 | +0.0 positions/start | Based on 15 combined evidence starts |
| Michael Daniels5 | 1.3% | 47.5% | 0.4% | Medium | 3.0 | -3.5 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Rick L Kennedy Jr | 1.1% | 47.5% | 0.9% | Medium | 4.0 | +2.5 positions/start | Based on 11 combined evidence starts |
| Michael Leytham | 1.0% | 40.9% | 0.9% | Medium | 4.0 | +8.3 positions/start | Based on 7 combined evidence starts |
| Johnathan Casebere | 0.9% | 32.7% | 0.4% | High | 5.4 | -6.2 positions/start | Based on 14 combined evidence starts |
| Clint Hackett | 0.8% | 42.7% | 0.4% | High | 5.2 | -4.8 positions/start | Based on 16 combined evidence starts |
| Austin Knight4 | 0.5% | 32.7% | 0.2% | Medium | 6.4 | +1.8 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Michael Coulter Jr | 0.2% | 47.5% | 0.3% | Medium | 6.0 | +0.8 positions/start | Based on 13 combined evidence starts |
| Ryan Wenndt | 0.2% | 40.9% | 0.2% | Medium | 7.3 | +7.3 positions/start | Based on 13 combined evidence starts |
| Jerry Culver | 0.1% | 36.4% | 0.1% | Medium | 5.0 | +2.0 positions/start | Based on 20 combined evidence starts |
Most incidents: Robert Church (9.2 recent incidents/start, high confidence). Categories awaiting independently verified data: History Maker, Streak Watch, Pressure Cooker. MWI Watch currently uses incident rate as a proxy, not official claimed incidents or lost-poll decisions. No betting or wagering is offered.
1 archived track starts • 1 track wins • 93.0 recent form index
Recent form and competitiveness proxy. Not a qualifying-specific prediction.
15.5 recent laps led per start
8.3 positions gained per recent start
2 actual fan votes cast for R6 at Kansas.
VOTE FOR YOUR FAVORITE →Highest-ranked drivers in the available forecast pool.
Simple View is designed for quick reading. Switch to Full Data for the complete five-factor breakdown, then open a race's evidence.
| RANK | DRIVER | FORECAST ⓘ | FORM ⓘ | TRACK HISTORY ⓘ | SIMILAR TRACKS ⓘ | CONFIDENCE | RACE EVIDENCE | CHAMPIONSHIP ⓘ | DISCIPLINE ⓘ | STARTS | WINS | AVG FINISH | TOP 5 | LAPS LED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Lemon | 78.6 | 93.0 | 62.5 | 54.4 (32 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P1 from P6 • 23 led | 84.42 | 92.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | R.B. Turner | 68.6 | 69.8 | 62.28 | 52.54 (24 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P9 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P4 from P1 • 2 led | 82.02 | 79.79 | 2 | 0 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Kevin Winker | 65.7 | 67.6 | 46.85 | 54.06 (21 starts) | High | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P8 • 3 led Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P9 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P8 • 38 led | 100.0 | 75.88 | 3 | 0 | 8.0 | 1 | 41 |
| 4 | Joshua Seigfried | 65.6 | 77.6 | 39.87 | 34.59 (25 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P16 from P4 • 3 led May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P3 • 68 led 2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P24 from P30 • 0 led | 96.57 | 84.93 | 3 | 0 | 14.0 | 1 | 71 |
| 5 | Pat Green | 64.6 | 75.0 | 44.66 | 37.61 (48 starts) | High | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P7 • 10 led Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P10 • 25 led Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P15 from P7 • 1 led 2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P30 from P8 • 0 led | 92.11 | 73.5 | 4 | 0 | 12.5 | 2 | 36 |
| 6 | Cameron D Derieux | 59.0 | 61.5 | 51.81 | 45.0 (104 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P7 from P5 • 1 led Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P9 • 0 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P18 • 0 led May 12, 2022 • xfinity • Buschy McBusch Race Kansas Speedway Oval • P1 from P15 • 35 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P21 • 0 led Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P31 from P12 • 0 led | 68.3 | 72.08 | 8 | 1 | 9.5 | 4 | 36 |
| 7 | Tyler Dudley | 58.0 | 68.5 | 50.0 | 32.66 (12 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 61.44 | 65.78 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 8 | Robert Dudley | 56.0 | 55.0 | 52.37 | 45.84 (43 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P4 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P3 • 7 led | 74.33 | 52.82 | 2 | 0 | 6.0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Fred Chase | 54.5 | 60.2 | 41.68 | 31.75 (34 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P11 from P16 • 0 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P6 from P27 • 0 led | 77.56 | 60.8 | 2 | 0 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Brad Dove | 50.9 | 61.1 | 28.37 | 28.29 (100 starts) | High | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P16 • 9 led Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 0 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P11 from P22 • 4 led Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P5 • 5 led Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P17 from P18 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P12 • 1 led | 63.84 | 86.08 | 7 | 0 | 11.71 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | John Hammond5 | 46.0 | 51.5 | 46.26 | 34.94 (120 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P10 • 0 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P5 • 0 led May 12, 2022 • xfinity • Buschy McBusch Race Kansas Speedway Oval • P23 from P13 • 0 led Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P2 from P5 • 0 led Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P2 • 0 led Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P16 from P4 • 0 led | 40.44 | 45.25 | 7 | 0 | 9.86 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Michael Daniels5 | 45.9 | 33.3 | 56.34 | 32.04 (7 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P4 from P19 • 0 led | 56.77 | 56.45 | 1 | 0 | 4.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Rick L Kennedy Jr | 44.2 | 44.1 | 42.46 | 24.42 (11 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P6 from P5 • 0 led 2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P27 • 0 led | 53.75 | 55.35 | 2 | 0 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Michael Leytham | 42.9 | 43.2 | 50.0 | 27.54 (4 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 37.42 | 44.15 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 15 | Johnathan Casebere | 42.7 | 33.5 | 32.03 | 39.32 (34 starts) | High | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P6 • 3 led May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P1 • 12 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P28 from P15 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P4 • 0 led | 87.23 | 43.92 | 4 | 0 | 15.0 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Clint Hackett | 40.6 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 27.78 (73 starts) | High | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P15 • 0 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P5 • 6 led Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P7 • 0 led Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P18 from P14 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 0 led 2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P25 • 0 led | 71.73 | 47.37 | 6 | 0 | 11.33 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Austin Knight4 | 36.1 | 21.1 | 50.0 | 26.64 (6 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 51.14 | 33.92 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 18 | Michael Coulter Jr | 29.2 | 30.2 | 18.62 | 25.43 (65 starts) | Medium | View racesOct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P13 • 0 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P20 from P19 • 0 led Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P26 from P9 • 0 led Apr 29, 2023 • xfinity • Kansas 225 Kansas Speedway Oval • P17 from P6 • 0 led | 47.71 | 33.36 | 4 | 0 | 18.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Ryan Wenndt | 26.7 | 21.5 | 36.14 | 24.03 (47 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P18 • 0 led Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P11 • 0 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P21 from P12 • 0 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P23 from P29 • 0 led Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P1 from P19 • 61 led | 25.68 | 20.46 | 5 | 1 | 13.8 | 1 | 61 |
| 20 | Jerry Culver | 23.2 | 18.3 | 24.12 | 29.2 (128 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P15 from P12 • 0 led Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P15 from P11 • 0 led Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 0 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P12 from P6 • 0 led May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P12 from P17 • 0 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P18 from P19 • 0 led | 21.43 | 34.7 | 11 | 0 | 14.45 | 0 | 17 |
| 21 | Mark Roettgen2 | 22.4 | 6.9 | 34.25 | 27.83 (151 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P7 from P7 • 6 led Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P13 • 2 led Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P8 • 1 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P8 • 0 led May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 1 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P17 from P17 • 0 led | 33.37 | 19.44 | 8 | 0 | 10.75 | 1 | 10 |
| 22 | Robert Church | 19.7 | 0.0 | 24.41 | 20.77 (118 starts) | High | View racesSep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P6 from P11 • 0 led Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P12 from P5 • 0 led Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P19 from P9 • 0 led Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P26 from P14 • 0 led Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P27 from P14 • 0 led Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P4 from P3 • 7 led | 28.49 | 60.0 | 9 | 0 | 16.78 | 1 | 14 |
Updated from the site's official result and historical statistics on page load. Refresh after Admin Update All to recalculate. Drivers not represented in available official form may not appear.