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CHOP SHOP NATIONALS
SEASON 1 • LEAGUE #14517

THE CHOP SHOP HYPE MACHINE • RACE WEEK

O’Reilly Series Race Forecast

UPCOMING RACE BEING PROJECTED

Kansas

O’Reilly Series • Round 6 • 2026-10-31

Every forecast, driver ranking, probability, and historical comparison below is for this scheduled race.

THE NUMBERS HAVE SPOKEN
Calculated Oct 26, 2026 08:30 UTC
⚡ THIS WEEK'S HEADLINEWHO'S READY TO STEAL THE SHOW?

Our official-data forecast sets the stage. The track will settle the argument.

★ THE DRIVER TO BEATFORECAST #1
01

Tyler Lemon

78.6 / 100 FORECAST INDEX

1 win in 1 verified race at this venue. Recent form: 93.0.

FORM 93.0TRACK 62.5CHAMPIONSHIP 84.42
THE CHIEF CHALLENGER#2

R.B. Turner

68.6 FORECAST INDEX

2 Top 5s in 2 venue starts • 69.8 form

10.0 points behind the forecast leader
THE PODIUM THREAT#3

Kevin Winker

65.7 FORECAST INDEX

1 Top 5 in 3 venue starts • 67.6 form

12.9 points behind the forecast leader
🔥 THE CLOSEST CHALLENGER.B. Turner vs. Tyler Lemon

Just 10.0 forecast-index points separate the top two.

🐎 THE SPOILER WATCHJoshua Seigfried

65.6 forecast index • 1 verified track Top 5s

🏁 VENUE HISTORY13 verified races

19 forecast drivers have matching venue results.

13Archived track races
13Historical seasons
119Historical drivers
5Recent races analyzed
Historical data coverage: 13 matching venue races across 13 seasons; 119 historical drivers. Similar-track matches: 22 forecast drivers. 19 of 22 ranked drivers matched to archived race records.

Evidence-based forecast, not a guaranteed result. Formula: 35% recent form + 30% same-venue history + 15% championship standings + 10% similar tracks + 10% consistency, incidents and reliability. No track history uses a neutral score rather than an invented result. Only drivers with current-series form are ranked.

🏁 BEYOND THE PODIUM

EVERY PART OF THE FIELD HAS A STORY

Who is coming forward? Who might surprise? Who needs to turn things around? These picks come directly from official form and archive scores.

📈 ON THE MOVE

Trending Forward

Best recent positions gained per race — an on-track momentum signal, not week-over-week ranking movement.

Michael Leytham+8.3 positions/race
Ryan Wenndt+7.3 positions/race
Tyler Dudley+5.5 positions/race
Pat Green+4.2 positions/race
Brad Dove+3.8 positions/race
📉 LOSING GROUND

Trending Backward

Recent positions lost per race. A warning sign, not a judgment of ability.

Robert Church-7.8 positions/race
Johnathan Casebere-6.2 positions/race
Mark Roettgen2-5.5 positions/race
Clint Hackett-4.8 positions/race
Michael Daniels5-3.5 positions/race
⚔ MID-PACK MAYHEM

The Movers

Strong positional gains among drivers ranked 6–15 in this forecast.

Michael Leytham8.3 gained/start
Tyler Dudley5.5 gained/start
Brad Dove3.8 gained/start
Fred Chase3.0 gained/start
Robert Dudley2.8 gained/start
💥 BOUNCE-BACK WATCH

Don't Count Them Out

Lower-ranked drivers (16+) with the strongest recent Top-5 rates and track signals.

Clint Hackett20% recent Top 5s
Austin Knight40% recent Top 5s
Ryan Wenndt0% recent Top 5s
Mark Roettgen20% recent Top 5s
Robert Church0% recent Top 5s
🌙 SLEEPER ALERT

Sleeping Giants?

Drivers outside the Top 5 whose track/similar-track ratings outpace recent form.

Mark Roettgen234.25 track / 6.9 form
Robert Church24.41 track / 0.0 form
Austin Knight450.0 track / 21.1 form
Michael Daniels556.34 track / 33.3 form
Ryan Wenndt36.14 track / 21.5 form
⚠ THE RISK BOARD

Approach With Caution

Highest recent incident rates in the eligible field. A statistical risk signal, not a penalty or blame ruling.

Robert Church9.2 inc/start
Mark Roettgen29.0 inc/start
Ryan Wenndt7.33 inc/start
John Hammond56.67 inc/start
Austin Knight46.4 inc/start
💰 FANTASY RADAR

Potential Value Plays

Drivers outside the Top 4 whose overall forecast looks stronger than their recent form. These are not live Fantasy salaries.

Robert Church19.7 forecast
Mark Roettgen222.4 forecast
Austin Knight436.1 forecast
Michael Daniels545.9 forecast
Johnathan Casebere42.7 forecast
CHECK LIVE FANTASY SALARIES →
👀 THE WATCHLIST

Eyes On These Five

The top five overall contenders based on the full five-factor forecast.

#1 Tyler Lemon78.6 index
#2 R.B. Turner68.6 index
#3 Kevin Winker65.7 index
#4 Joshua Seigfried65.6 index
#5 Pat Green64.6 index
CHOP'S RACE-WEEK PICKS

THE FORECAST BOARD

Model rankings meet race-week storylines. Each pick shows the supporting signal and confidence level.

Model PICKMedium confidence

Chop’s Lock of the Week

Tyler Lemon

Top-ranked five-factor forecast

78.6 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Chop’s Sleeper Pick

Austin Knight4

Track rating stronger than recent form

36.1 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Dove Bomb Candidate

Michael Leytham

Midfield driver gaining positions

42.9 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Midfield Surprise

Cameron D Derieux

Strongest mid-pack forecast

59.0 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Under-the-Radar Pick

Robert Dudley

Strong comparable-track rating

56.0 forecast index
Statistical PICKHigh confidence

The Danger Zone

Robert Church

Elevated recent incident rate

19.7 forecast index
Editorial PICKHigh confidence

Hot Seat

Johnathan Casebere

Championship strength exceeds recent form

42.7 forecast index
Editorial PICKHigh confidence

Redemption Run

Robert Church

Recent position losses invite a bounce-back

19.7 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

The Spoiler

Cameron D Derieux

Highest-ranked challenger outside Top 5

59.0 forecast index
Statistical PICKMedium confidence

Mr. Consistency

Tyler Lemon

Strong recent Top-5 consistency

78.6 forecast index
Proxy PICKHigh confidence

Chop’s Most Wanted Watch

Robert Church

Incident-rate proxy; not an official MWI ranking

19.7 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Giant Killer

Michael Daniels5

Track pedigree outside the favorites

45.9 forecast index
Model PICKMedium confidence

Rivalry Radar

R.B. Turner

Closest challenger to the projected favorite

68.6 forecast index
Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Overrated or Underrated

Joshua Seigfried

Largest gap between venue history and form

65.6 forecast index
Proxy PICKMedium confidence

Closing Strength

Michael Leytham

Positions gained per race; not lap-by-lap closing pace

42.9 forecast index
Proxy PICKMedium confidence

Hardest to Overtake

Tyler Lemon

Consistency/form proxy, not pass-by-pass telemetry

78.6 forecast index
Model PICKMedium confidence

Pole Watch

Tyler Lemon

Relative qualifying estimate

78.6 forecast index
Model PICKMedium confidence

Top 10 Watch

Tyler Lemon

Recent Top-10 rate blended with field baseline

78.6 forecast index
THE AI REPORT CARD

Predicted vs. Actual

Forecasts are locked on their first pre-race publication. Comparisons appear only after official results are posted.

1 RACES AUDITED0 WINNERS RIGHT6.7 AVG FINISH-POSITION ERROR

Recent audits: R5 Chicagoland (6.7 places average error)

CHOP SHOP • RACE WEEK SPORTSBOOK-STYLE BOARD

THE ODDS ROOM

For entertainment only: statistical model estimates, not bookmaker odds or wagering offers.

CS ODDS
DRIVERWIN % ⓘTOP 10 % ⓘPOLE % ⓘCONFIDENCEINC / START ⓘCLOSING PROXY ⓘNOTES
Tyler Lemon34.3%65.9%40.6%Medium0.0+3.0 positions/startBased on 9 combined evidence starts
R.B. Turner12.6%52.7%6.8%Medium3.2-0.8 positions/startBased on 12 combined evidence starts
Kevin Winker9.5%52.7%5.7%High2.0-1.6 positions/startBased on 13 combined evidence starts
Joshua Seigfried9.4%58.6%12.4%Medium0.5-1.8 positions/startBased on 12 combined evidence starts
Pat Green8.5%62.7%10.2%High3.0+4.2 positions/startBased on 14 combined evidence starts
Cameron D Derieux4.8%47.5%3.6%Medium3.0+2.5 positions/startBased on 17 combined evidence starts
Tyler Dudley4.4%36.4%6.2%Medium3.5+5.5 positions/startBased on 9 combined evidence starts
Robert Dudley3.6%52.7%2.2%Medium5.0+2.8 positions/startBased on 12 combined evidence starts
Fred Chase3.1%47.5%3.3%Medium4.0+3.0 positions/startBased on 11 combined evidence starts
Brad Dove2.2%52.7%3.5%High2.8+3.8 positions/startBased on 17 combined evidence starts
John Hammond51.3%40.9%1.7%Medium6.7+0.0 positions/startBased on 15 combined evidence starts
Michael Daniels51.3%47.5%0.4%Medium3.0-3.5 positions/startBased on 10 combined evidence starts
Rick L Kennedy Jr1.1%47.5%0.9%Medium4.0+2.5 positions/startBased on 11 combined evidence starts
Michael Leytham1.0%40.9%0.9%Medium4.0+8.3 positions/startBased on 7 combined evidence starts
Johnathan Casebere0.9%32.7%0.4%High5.4-6.2 positions/startBased on 14 combined evidence starts
Clint Hackett0.8%42.7%0.4%High5.2-4.8 positions/startBased on 16 combined evidence starts
Austin Knight40.5%32.7%0.2%Medium6.4+1.8 positions/startBased on 10 combined evidence starts
Michael Coulter Jr0.2%47.5%0.3%Medium6.0+0.8 positions/startBased on 13 combined evidence starts
Ryan Wenndt0.2%40.9%0.2%Medium7.3+7.3 positions/startBased on 13 combined evidence starts
Jerry Culver0.1%36.4%0.1%Medium5.0+2.0 positions/startBased on 20 combined evidence starts

Most incidents: Robert Church (9.2 recent incidents/start, high confidence). Categories awaiting independently verified data: History Maker, Streak Watch, Pressure Cooker. MWI Watch currently uses incident rate as a proxy, not official claimed incidents or lost-poll decisions. No betting or wagering is offered.

👑 RACE FAVORITE

Tyler Lemon

78.6 forecast index

1 archived track starts • 1 track wins • 93.0 recent form index

🎯 POLE THREAT

R.B. Turner

Recent form and competitiveness proxy. Not a qualifying-specific prediction.

⚡ LAPS-LED THREAT

Joshua Seigfried

15.5 recent laps led per start

🔼 HARD CHARGER

Michael Leytham

8.3 positions gained per recent start

🏆 THE PROJECTED PODIUM

🥇
PROJECTED P1Tyler Lemon
78.6 INDEX
🥈
PROJECTED P2R.B. Turner
68.6 INDEX
🥉
PROJECTED P3Kevin Winker
65.7 INDEX
📣 THE PEOPLE'S PICK

Crowd Favorite

FANS ARE BACKINGBlake A. Dudley50.0% OF VOTES

2 actual fan votes cast for R6 at Kansas.

VOTE FOR YOUR FAVORITE →

⚔ THE CHASING PACK

Highest-ranked drivers in the available forecast pool.

1. Tyler Lemon78.6
2. R.B. Turner68.6
3. Kevin Winker65.7
4. Joshua Seigfried65.6
5. Pat Green64.6
6. Cameron D Derieux59.0
7. Tyler Dudley58.0
8. Robert Dudley56.0
9. Fred Chase54.5
10. Brad Dove50.9

🐎 SPOILER ALERT

Joshua Seigfried0 track wins
Pat Green0 track wins
Cameron D Derieux1 track wins
Tyler Dudley0 track wins
Robert Dudley0 track wins

🏁 TRACK SPECIALISTS

Tyler Lemon1 starts · 1.0 avg finish
Cameron D Derieux8 starts · 9.5 avg finish
Ryan Wenndt5 starts · 13.8 avg finish
Michael Daniels51 starts · 4.0 avg finish
R.B. Turner2 starts · 4.5 avg finish

WHY THESE DRIVERS? — THE NUMBERS

Simple View is designed for quick reading. Switch to Full Data for the complete five-factor breakdown, then open a race's evidence.

RANKDRIVERFORECAST ⓘFORM ⓘTRACK HISTORY ⓘSIMILAR TRACKS ⓘCONFIDENCERACE EVIDENCECHAMPIONSHIP ⓘDISCIPLINE ⓘSTARTSWINSAVG FINISHTOP 5LAPS LED
1Tyler Lemon78.693.062.554.4 (32 starts)Medium
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P1 from P6 • 23 led
84.4292.0111.0123
2R.B. Turner68.669.862.2852.54 (24 starts)Medium
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P9 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P4 from P1 • 2 led
82.0279.79204.522
3Kevin Winker65.767.646.8554.06 (21 starts)High
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P8 • 3 led
Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P9 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P8 • 38 led
100.075.88308.0141
4Joshua Seigfried65.677.639.8734.59 (25 starts)Medium
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P16 from P4 • 3 led
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P3 • 68 led
2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P24 from P30 • 0 led
96.5784.933014.0171
5Pat Green64.675.044.6637.61 (48 starts)High
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P7 • 10 led
Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P10 • 25 led
Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P15 from P7 • 1 led
2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P30 from P8 • 0 led
92.1173.54012.5236
6Cameron D Derieux59.061.551.8145.0 (104 starts)Medium
View races
Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P7 from P5 • 1 led
Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P9 • 0 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P18 • 0 led
May 12, 2022 • xfinity • Buschy McBusch Race Kansas Speedway Oval • P1 from P15 • 35 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P21 • 0 led
Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P31 from P12 • 0 led
68.372.08819.5436
7Tyler Dudley58.068.550.032.66 (12 starts)MediumUnverified61.4465.7800———
8Robert Dudley56.055.052.3745.84 (43 starts)Medium
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P4 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P3 • 7 led
74.3352.82206.017
9Fred Chase54.560.241.6831.75 (34 starts)Medium
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P11 from P16 • 0 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P6 from P27 • 0 led
77.5660.8208.500
10Brad Dove50.961.128.3728.29 (100 starts)High
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P16 • 9 led
Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 0 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P11 from P22 • 4 led
Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P5 • 5 led
Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P17 from P18 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P12 • 1 led
63.8486.087011.71019
11John Hammond546.051.546.2634.94 (120 starts)Medium
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P3 from P10 • 0 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P2 from P5 • 0 led
May 12, 2022 • xfinity • Buschy McBusch Race Kansas Speedway Oval • P23 from P13 • 0 led
Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P2 from P5 • 0 led
Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P2 • 0 led
Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P16 from P4 • 0 led
40.4445.25709.8630
12Michael Daniels545.933.356.3432.04 (7 starts)Medium
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P4 from P19 • 0 led
56.7756.45104.010
13Rick L Kennedy Jr44.244.142.4624.42 (11 starts)Medium
View races
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P6 from P5 • 0 led
2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P27 • 0 led
53.7555.35207.500
14Michael Leytham42.943.250.027.54 (4 starts)MediumUnverified37.4244.1500———
15Johnathan Casebere42.733.532.0339.32 (34 starts)High
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P6 • 3 led
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P13 from P1 • 12 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P28 from P15 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P4 • 0 led
87.2343.924015.0115
16Clint Hackett40.634.134.827.78 (73 starts)High
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P15 • 0 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P5 • 6 led
Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P7 • 0 led
Feb 13, 2026 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P18 from P14 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 0 led
2026-04-24 • nextgen • Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P25 • 0 led
71.7347.376011.3316
17Austin Knight436.121.150.026.64 (6 starts)MediumUnverified51.1433.9200———
18Michael Coulter Jr29.230.218.6225.43 (65 starts)Medium
View races
Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P9 from P13 • 0 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P20 from P19 • 0 led
Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P26 from P9 • 0 led
Apr 29, 2023 • xfinity • Kansas 225 Kansas Speedway Oval • P17 from P6 • 0 led
47.7133.364018.000
19Ryan Wenndt26.721.536.1424.03 (47 starts)Medium
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P18 • 0 led
Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P14 from P11 • 0 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P21 from P12 • 0 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P23 from P29 • 0 led
Dec 14, 2024 • xfinity • KANSAS Kansas Speedway Oval • P1 from P19 • 61 led
25.6820.465113.8161
20Jerry Culver23.218.324.1229.2 (128 starts)Medium
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P15 from P12 • 0 led
Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P15 from P11 • 0 led
Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 0 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P12 from P6 • 0 led
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P12 from P17 • 0 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P18 from P19 • 0 led
21.4334.711014.45017
21Mark Roettgen222.46.934.2527.83 (151 starts)Medium
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P7 from P7 • 6 led
Sep 11, 2022 • dirt • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P5 from P13 • 2 led
Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P8 • 1 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P10 from P8 • 0 led
May 16, 2026 • xfinity • ROUND OF 12 CHAMPIONSHIP Kansas Speedway Oval • P8 from P10 • 1 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P17 from P17 • 0 led
33.3719.448010.75110
22Robert Church19.70.024.4120.77 (118 starts)High
View races
Sep 6, 2024 • nextgen • Kansas - Championship Round 1 of 2 Kansas Speedway Oval • P6 from P11 • 0 led
Oct 22, 2023 • arca • Kansas 200 *Round 1* Kansas Speedway Oval • P12 from P5 • 0 led
Oct 20, 2023 • nextgen • Kansas 200 Kansas Speedway Oval • P19 from P9 • 0 led
Mar 21, 2025 • nextgen • Kansas Kansas Speedway Oval • P26 from P14 • 0 led
Jun 6, 2023 • trucks • Kansas 200 Kansas Oval • P27 from P14 • 0 led
Jan 21, 2026 • arca • Kansas Speedway Oval • P4 from P3 • 7 led
28.4960.09016.78114

Updated from the site's official result and historical statistics on page load. Refresh after Admin Update All to recalculate. Drivers not represented in available official form may not appear.