THE CHOP SHOP HYPE MACHINE • RACE WEEK

Nationals Race Forecast

UPCOMING RACE BEING PROJECTED

North Wilkesboro Speedway

Nationals • Round 13 • 2026-10-29

Every forecast, driver ranking, probability, and historical comparison below is for this scheduled race.

THE NUMBERS HAVE SPOKEN
Calculated Oct 26, 2026 08:32 UTC

⚡ THIS WEEK'S HEADLINEWHO'S READY TO STEAL THE SHOW?

Our official-data forecast sets the stage. The track will settle the argument.

★ THE DRIVER TO BEATFORECAST #1

Cale D Spicer

80.5 / 100 FORECAST INDEX

Track record still unverified — the pick is driven by other measured strengths. Recent form: 98.0.

FORM 98.0TRACK 50.0CHAMPIONSHIP 94.17

THE CHIEF CHALLENGER#2

Jason A Day

76.1 FORECAST INDEX

1 Top 5 in 1 venue starts • 84.0 form

4.4 points behind the forecast leader

THE PODIUM THREAT#3

Brian Rayburn

64.0 FORECAST INDEX

No verified venue starts yet • 67.0 form

16.5 points behind the forecast leader

🔥 THE CLOSEST CHALLENGEJason A Day vs. Cale D Spicer

Just 4.4 forecast-index points separate the top two.

🐎 THE SPOILER WATCHClint Hackett

58.0 forecast index • 0 verified track Top 5s

🏁 VENUE HISTORY1 verified race

4 forecast drivers have matching venue results.

1Archived track races

1Historical seasons

14Historical drivers

5Recent races analyzed

Historical data coverage: 1 matching venue races across 1 seasons; 14 historical drivers. Similar-track matches: 11 forecast drivers. 4 of 11 ranked drivers matched to archived race records.

Evidence-based forecast, not a guaranteed result. Formula: 35% recent form + 30% same-venue history + 15% championship standings + 10% similar tracks + 10% consistency, incidents and reliability. No track history uses a neutral score rather than an invented result. Only drivers with current-series form are ranked.

🏁 BEYOND THE PODIUM

EVERY PART OF THE FIELD HAS A STORY

Who is coming forward? Who might surprise? Who needs to turn things around? These picks come directly from official form and archive scores.

📈 ON THE MOVE

Trending Forward

Best recent positions gained per race — an on-track momentum signal, not week-over-week ranking movement.

Cale D Spicer+5.7 positions/race

Brad Dove+4.4 positions/race

Jorge Rincon+2.0 positions/race

Clint Hackett+1.6 positions/race

Michael Leytham+0.2 positions/race

📉 LOSING GROUND

Trending Backward

Recent positions lost per race. A warning sign, not a judgment of ability.

Robert Church-6.0 positions/race

Mark Roettgen2-3.6 positions/race

Brian Rayburn-1.4 positions/race

Jason A Day-1.0 positions/race

Austin Knight-0.6 positions/race

⚔ MID-PACK MAYHEM

The Movers

Strong positional gains among drivers ranked 6–15 in this forecast.

Brad Dove4.4 gained/start

Jorge Rincon2.0 gained/start

Michael Leytham0.2 gained/start

Jerry Culver-0.3 gained/start

Mark Roettgen2-3.6 gained/start

💥 BOUNCE-BACK WATCH

Don't Count Them Out

Lower-ranked drivers (16+) with the strongest recent Top-5 rates and track signals.

Not enough lower-ranked drivers for this watchlist.

🌙 SLEEPER ALERT

Sleeping Giants?

Drivers outside the Top 5 whose track/similar-track ratings outpace recent form.

Robert Church45.26 track / 0.0 form

Mark Roettgen246.03 track / 16.0 form

Jorge Rincon50.0 track / 29.0 form

Michael Leytham50.0 track / 39.0 form

Jerry Culver50.0 track / 38.0 form

⚠ THE RISK BOARD

Approach With Caution

Highest recent incident rates in the eligible field. A statistical risk signal, not a penalty or blame ruling.

Robert Church2.8 inc/start

Mark Roettgen22.4 inc/start

Brad Dove1.8 inc/start

Michael Leytham1.75 inc/start

Clint Hackett1.6 inc/start

💰 FANTASY RADAR

Potential Value Plays

Drivers outside the Top 4 whose overall forecast looks stronger than their recent form. These are not live Fantasy salaries.

Robert Church33.7 forecast

Jorge Rincon43.8 forecast

Mark Roettgen225.3 forecast

Jerry Culver47.1 forecast

Michael Leytham43.4 forecast

CHECK LIVE FANTASY SALARIES →

👀 THE WATCHLIST

Eyes On These Five

The top five overall contenders based on the full five-factor forecast.

#1 Cale D Spicer80.5 index

#2 Jason A Day76.1 index

#3 Brian Rayburn64.0 index

#4 Austin Knight59.5 index

#5 Clint Hackett58.0 index

CHOP'S RACE-WEEK PICKS

THE FORECAST BOARD

Model rankings meet race-week storylines. Each pick shows the supporting signal and confidence level.

Model PICKMedium confidence

Chop’s Lock of the Week

Cale D Spicer

Top-ranked five-factor forecast

80.5 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Chop’s Sleeper Pick

Robert Church

Track rating stronger than recent form

33.7 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Dove Bomb Candidate

Brad Dove

Midfield driver gaining positions

57.9 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Midfield Surprise

Brad Dove

Strongest mid-pack forecast

57.9 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Under-the-Radar Pick

Brad Dove

Strong comparable-track rating

57.9 forecast index

Statistical PICKMedium confidence

The Danger Zone

Robert Church

Elevated recent incident rate

33.7 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Hot Seat

Robert Church

Championship strength exceeds recent form

33.7 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Redemption Run

Robert Church

Recent position losses invite a bounce-back

33.7 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

The Spoiler

Brad Dove

Highest-ranked challenger outside Top 5

57.9 forecast index

Statistical PICKMedium confidence

Mr. Consistency

Cale D Spicer

Strong recent Top-5 consistency

80.5 forecast index

Proxy PICKMedium confidence

Chop’s Most Wanted Watch

Robert Church

Incident-rate proxy; not an official MWI ranking

33.7 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Giant Killer

Jerry Culver

Track pedigree outside the favorites

47.1 forecast index

Model PICKMedium confidence

Rivalry Radar

Jason A Day

Closest challenger to the projected favorite

76.1 forecast index

Editorial PICKMedium confidence

Overrated or Underrated

Cale D Spicer

Largest gap between venue history and form

80.5 forecast index

Proxy PICKMedium confidence

Closing Strength

Cale D Spicer

Positions gained per race; not lap-by-lap closing pace

80.5 forecast index

Proxy PICKMedium confidence

Hardest to Overtake

Cale D Spicer

Consistency/form proxy, not pass-by-pass telemetry

80.5 forecast index

Model PICKMedium confidence

Pole Watch

Cale D Spicer

Relative qualifying estimate

80.5 forecast index

Model PICKMedium confidence

Top 10 Watch

Jason A Day

Recent Top-10 rate blended with field baseline

76.1 forecast index

THE AI REPORT CARD

Predicted vs. Actual

Forecasts are locked on their first pre-race publication. Comparisons appear only after official results are posted.

TRACKING STARTED — WAITING FOR OFFICIAL FINISHES

The report card will populate as races with saved forecasts become official.

CHOP SHOP • RACE WEEK SPORTSBOOK-STYLE BOARD

THE ODDS ROOM

For entertainment only: statistical model estimates, not bookmaker odds or wagering offers.

CS ODDS

DRIVER	WIN % ⓘ	TOP 10 % ⓘ	POLE % ⓘ	CONFIDENCE	INC / START ⓘ	CLOSING PROXY ⓘ	NOTES
Cale D Spicer	44.1%	94.3%	61.7%	Medium	1.3	+5.7 positions/start	Based on 6 combined evidence starts
Jason A Day	28.4%	95.5%	21.0%	Medium	0.8	-1.0 positions/start	Based on 11 combined evidence starts
Brian Rayburn	8.5%	95.5%	5.7%	Medium	1.6	-1.4 positions/start	Based on 10 combined evidence starts
Austin Knight	5.4%	75.5%	2.6%	Medium	0.6	-0.6 positions/start	Based on 10 combined evidence starts
Clint Hackett	4.6%	95.5%	3.1%	Medium	1.6	+1.6 positions/start	Based on 10 combined evidence starts
Brad Dove	4.6%	85.5%	4.2%	Medium	1.8	+4.4 positions/start	Based on 11 combined evidence starts
Jerry Culver	1.6%	94.3%	0.6%	Medium	1.3	-0.3 positions/start	Based on 8 combined evidence starts
Jorge Rincon	1.1%	81.8%	0.3%	Medium	1.3	+2.0 positions/start	Based on 8 combined evidence starts
Michael Leytham	1.1%	83.8%	0.7%	Medium	1.8	+0.2 positions/start	Based on 9 combined evidence starts
Robert Church	0.4%	45.5%	0.0%	Medium	2.8	-6.0 positions/start	Based on 11 combined evidence starts
Mark Roettgen2	0.2%	65.5%	0.1%	Medium	2.4	-3.6 positions/start	Based on 11 combined evidence starts

Most incidents: Robert Church (2.8 recent incidents/start, medium confidence). Categories awaiting independently verified data: History Maker, Streak Watch, Pressure Cooker. MWI Watch currently uses incident rate as a proxy, not official claimed incidents or lost-poll decisions. No betting or wagering is offered.

👑 RACE FAVORITE

Cale D Spicer

80.5 forecast index

0 archived track starts • 0 track wins • 98.0 recent form index

🎯 POLE THREAT

Cale D Spicer

Recent form and competitiveness proxy. Not a qualifying-specific prediction.

⚡ LAPS-LED THREAT

Cale D Spicer

81.0 recent laps led per start

🔼 HARD CHARGER

Cale D Spicer

5.7 positions gained per recent start

🏆 THE PROJECTED PODIUM

🥇

PROJECTED P1Cale D Spicer

80.5 INDEX

🥈

PROJECTED P2Jason A Day

76.1 INDEX

🥉

PROJECTED P3Brian Rayburn

64.0 INDEX

📣 THE PEOPLE'S PICK

Crowd Favorite

FANS ARE BACKINGBrian Rayburn28.6% OF VOTES

7 actual fan votes cast for R13 at North Wilkesboro Speedway.

VOTE FOR YOUR FAVORITE →

⚔ THE CHASING PACK

Highest-ranked drivers in the available forecast pool.

1. Cale D Spicer80.5

2. Jason A Day76.1

3. Brian Rayburn64.0

4. Austin Knight59.5

5. Clint Hackett58.0

6. Brad Dove57.9

7. Jerry Culver47.1

8. Jorge Rincon43.8

9. Michael Leytham43.4

10. Robert Church33.7

🐎 SPOILER ALERT

Clint Hackett0 track wins

Brad Dove0 track wins

Jorge Rincon0 track wins

🏁 TRACK SPECIALISTS

Jason A Day1 starts · 4.0 avg finish

Mark Roettgen21 starts · 8.0 avg finish

Brad Dove1 starts · 9.0 avg finish

Robert Church1 starts · 10.0 avg finish

WHY THESE DRIVERS? — THE NUMBERS

Simple View is designed for quick reading. Switch to Full Data for the complete five-factor breakdown, then open a race's evidence.

RANK	DRIVER	FORECAST ⓘ	FORM ⓘ	TRACK HISTORY ⓘ	SIMILAR TRACKS ⓘ	CONFIDENCE	RACE EVIDENCE	CHAMPIONSHIP ⓘ	DISCIPLINE ⓘ	STARTS	AVG FINISH	TOP 5	LAPS LED
1	Cale D Spicer	80.5	98.0	50.0	87.5 (3 starts)	Medium	Unverified	94.17	83.0	0	—	—	—
2	Jason A Day	76.1	84.0	56.34	59.87 (51 starts)	Medium	View races Jan 28, 2024 • superlate • North Wilkesboro - Season 1 North Wilkesboro Speedway Oval - 1987 • P4 from P9 • 0 led	97.24	92.0	1	4.0	1	0
3	Brian Rayburn	64.0	67.0	50.0	35.07 (45 starts)	Medium	Unverified	100.0	70.5	0	—	—	—
4	Austin Knight	59.5	57.0	50.0	40.81 (7 starts)	Medium	Unverified	81.51	82.5	0	—	—	—
5	Clint Hackett	58.0	59.0	50.0	28.68 (44 starts)	Medium	Unverified	90.71	59.0	0	—	—	—
6	Brad Dove	57.9	63.0	45.65	34.71 (73 starts)	Medium	View races Jan 28, 2024 • superlate • North Wilkesboro - Season 1 North Wilkesboro Speedway Oval - 1987 • P9 from P11 • 0 led	88.95	53.5	1	9.0	0	0
7	Jerry Culver	47.1	38.0	50.0	26.35 (68 starts)	Medium	Unverified	71.75	54.0	0	—	—	—
8	Jorge Rincon	43.8	29.0	50.0	24.18 (12 starts)	Medium	Unverified	77.55	46.0	0	—	—	—
9	Michael Leytham	43.4	39.0	50.0	33.52 (5 starts)	Medium	Unverified	47.17	43.5	0	—	—	—
10	Robert Church	33.7	0.0	45.26	21.74 (64 starts)	Medium	View races Jan 28, 2024 • superlate • North Wilkesboro - Season 1 North Wilkesboro Speedway Oval - 1987 • P10 from P6 • 0 led	79.56	60.0	1	10.0	0	0
11	Mark Roettgen2	25.3	16.0	46.03	30.5 (89 starts)	Medium	View races Jan 28, 2024 • superlate • North Wilkesboro - Season 1 North Wilkesboro Speedway Oval - 1987 • P8 from P7 • 0 led	0.0	28.0	1	8.0	0	0

Updated from the site's official result and historical statistics on page load. Refresh after Admin Update All to recalculate. Drivers not represented in available official form may not appear.