Nathan Biggart
1 win in 8 verified races at this venue. Recent form: 95.8.

THE CHOP SHOP HYPE MACHINE • RACE WEEK
UPCOMING RACE BEING PROJECTED
Every forecast, driver ranking, probability, and historical comparison below is for this scheduled race.
Our official-data forecast sets the stage. The track will settle the argument.
1 win in 8 verified races at this venue. Recent form: 95.8.
1 Top 5 in 1 venue starts • 94.7 form
2.9 points behind the forecast leaderNo verified venue starts yet • 87.3 form
6.3 points behind the forecast leaderJust 2.9 forecast-index points separate the top two.
68.3 forecast index • 4 verified track Top 5s
22 forecast drivers have matching venue results.
Evidence-based forecast, not a guaranteed result. Formula: 35% recent form + 30% same-venue history + 15% championship standings + 10% similar tracks + 10% consistency, incidents and reliability. No track history uses a neutral score rather than an invented result. Only drivers with current-series form are ranked.
Who is coming forward? Who might surprise? Who needs to turn things around? These picks come directly from official form and archive scores.
Best recent positions gained per race — an on-track momentum signal, not week-over-week ranking movement.
Recent positions lost per race. A warning sign, not a judgment of ability.
Strong positional gains among drivers ranked 6–15 in this forecast.
Lower-ranked drivers (16+) with the strongest recent Top-5 rates and track signals.
Drivers outside the Top 5 whose track/similar-track ratings outpace recent form.
Highest recent incident rates in the eligible field. A statistical risk signal, not a penalty or blame ruling.
Drivers outside the Top 4 whose overall forecast looks stronger than their recent form. These are not live Fantasy salaries.
The top five overall contenders based on the full five-factor forecast.
Model rankings meet race-week storylines. Each pick shows the supporting signal and confidence level.
Top-ranked five-factor forecast
82.7 forecast indexTrack rating stronger than recent form
28.4 forecast indexMidfield driver gaining positions
63.7 forecast indexStrongest mid-pack forecast
64.0 forecast indexStrong comparable-track rating
50.3 forecast indexElevated recent incident rate
39.6 forecast indexChampionship strength exceeds recent form
32.8 forecast indexRecent position losses invite a bounce-back
40.6 forecast indexHighest-ranked challenger outside Top 5
64.0 forecast indexStrong recent Top-5 consistency
82.7 forecast indexIncident-rate proxy; not an official MWI ranking
39.6 forecast indexTrack pedigree outside the favorites
56.4 forecast indexClosest challenger to the projected favorite
79.8 forecast indexLargest gap between venue history and form
28.4 forecast indexPositions gained per race; not lap-by-lap closing pace
79.8 forecast indexConsistency/form proxy, not pass-by-pass telemetry
82.7 forecast indexRelative qualifying estimate
82.7 forecast indexRecent Top-10 rate blended with field baseline
82.7 forecast indexForecasts are locked on their first pre-race publication. Comparisons appear only after official results are posted.
Recent audits: R22 Auto Club Speedway Oval (7.1 places average error)
For entertainment only: statistical model estimates, not bookmaker odds or wagering offers.
| DRIVER | WIN % ⓘ | TOP 10 % ⓘ | POLE % ⓘ | CONFIDENCE | INC / START ⓘ | CLOSING PROXY ⓘ | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Biggart | 27.3% | 68.5% | 26.1% | High | 1.4 | +2.2 positions/start | Based on 18 combined evidence starts |
| Brandon T Banks | 20.4% | 53.9% | 23.9% | Medium | 1.5 | +12.2 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Tyler Dalton | 14.5% | 48.5% | 13.6% | Medium | 1.6 | -1.8 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Jason A Day | 6.5% | 38.5% | 2.7% | High | 3.8 | +0.0 positions/start | Based on 15 combined evidence starts |
| Brian Fine | 4.2% | 58.5% | 5.4% | Medium | 3.6 | +2.4 positions/start | Based on 11 combined evidence starts |
| Cameron D Derieux | 4.2% | 58.5% | 4.8% | High | 5.0 | +3.0 positions/start | Based on 16 combined evidence starts |
| Craig Parks | 4.1% | 42.8% | 7.1% | Medium | 1.0 | +10.0 positions/start | Based on 9 combined evidence starts |
| Chris M Justice | 4.1% | 48.5% | 4.1% | Medium | 4.6 | +1.0 positions/start | Based on 12 combined evidence starts |
| Michael Strickland4 | 3.0% | 58.5% | 2.3% | High | 5.4 | -1.2 positions/start | Based on 18 combined evidence starts |
| Tyler Lemon | 2.7% | 42.8% | 2.1% | Medium | 3.0 | -5.0 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Robert Dudley | 2.0% | 31.7% | 1.2% | Medium | 3.8 | +1.0 positions/start | Based on 13 combined evidence starts |
| Bentley Glaser | 1.6% | 42.8% | 1.9% | Medium | 2.8 | +4.5 positions/start | Based on 9 combined evidence starts |
| Eric Schaffer | 1.1% | 35.6% | 0.6% | Medium | 6.0 | -3.3 positions/start | Based on 9 combined evidence starts |
| Tony Sanders | 0.8% | 38.5% | 1.1% | High | 4.0 | +6.0 positions/start | Based on 13 combined evidence starts |
| Brock Duty | 0.5% | 31.7% | 0.6% | Medium | 3.0 | +4.5 positions/start | Based on 12 combined evidence starts |
| Brad Dove | 0.5% | 31.7% | 0.6% | Medium | 6.2 | +8.8 positions/start | Based on 17 combined evidence starts |
| Joshua Seigfried | 0.4% | 35.6% | 0.5% | Medium | 3.3 | -15.3 positions/start | Based on 11 combined evidence starts |
| John Hammond5 | 0.4% | 35.6% | 0.2% | Medium | 3.3 | -7.3 positions/start | Based on 17 combined evidence starts |
| Jeremy Bailey | 0.4% | 35.6% | 0.4% | Medium | 9.0 | +0.0 positions/start | Based on 9 combined evidence starts |
| Mark Roettgen2 | 0.3% | 42.8% | 0.3% | Medium | 5.8 | -1.8 positions/start | Based on 18 combined evidence starts |
Most incidents: Jeremy Bailey (9.0 recent incidents/start, medium confidence). Categories awaiting independently verified data: History Maker, Streak Watch, Pressure Cooker. MWI Watch currently uses incident rate as a proxy, not official claimed incidents or lost-poll decisions. No betting or wagering is offered.
8 archived track starts • 1 track wins • 95.8 recent form index
Recent form and competitiveness proxy. Not a qualifying-specific prediction.
32.2 recent laps led per start
12.2 positions gained per recent start
2 actual fan votes cast for R23 at Iowa Speedway Oval.
VOTE FOR YOUR FAVORITE →Highest-ranked drivers in the available forecast pool.
Simple View is designed for quick reading. Switch to Full Data for the complete five-factor breakdown, then open a race's evidence.
| RANK | DRIVER | FORECAST ⓘ | FORM ⓘ | TRACK HISTORY ⓘ | SIMILAR TRACKS ⓘ | CONFIDENCE | RACE EVIDENCE | CHAMPIONSHIP ⓘ | DISCIPLINE ⓘ | STARTS | WINS | AVG FINISH | TOP 5 | LAPS LED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Biggart | 82.7 | 95.8 | 58.51 | 68.02 (61 starts) | High | View racesSep 15, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P13 from P4 • 26 led Nov 12, 2023 • arca • Iowa 200 *Round 2* Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P1 from P1 • 87 led May 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P13 from P19 • 0 led May 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P5 from P4 • 5 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P4 from P1 • 146 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P22 from P1 • 47 led | 100.0 | 98.29 | 8 | 1 | 8.0 | 5 | 382 |
| 2 | Brandon T Banks | 79.8 | 94.7 | 62.5 | 53.73 (28 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P1 from P8 • 59 led | 89.22 | 91.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 59 |
| 3 | Tyler Dalton | 76.4 | 87.3 | 50.0 | 75.19 (8 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 94.2 | 92.13 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Jason A Day | 68.3 | 66.2 | 71.72 | 58.94 (47 starts) | High | View racesMay 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P2 from P2 • 1 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P2 from P2 • 23 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P1 from P5 • 56 led Dec 11, 2022 • dirt • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P2 from P3 • 33 led Apr 21, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P15 from P11 • 0 led | 76.94 | 61.71 | 5 | 1 | 4.4 | 4 | 113 |
| 5 | Brian Fine | 64.1 | 75.4 | 46.81 | 41.49 (18 starts) | Medium | View racesDec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P6 from P10 • 46 led | 85.09 | 67.87 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 0 | 46 |
| 6 | Cameron D Derieux | 64.0 | 73.9 | 53.45 | 53.53 (53 starts) | High | View racesMay 26, 2022 • xfinity • Corn Festival 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 Night • P11 from P13 • 0 led May 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P12 from P3 • 10 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P2 from P13 • 2 led Dec 11, 2022 • dirt • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P3 from P5 • 1 led Apr 21, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P5 from P8 • 0 led 2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P8 from P7 • 0 led | 72.4 | 58.85 | 6 | 0 | 6.83 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Craig Parks | 63.7 | 78.9 | 50.0 | 26.19 (8 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 63.52 | 89.28 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris M Justice | 63.7 | 71.9 | 47.33 | 51.72 (23 starts) | Medium | View racesDec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P4 from P2 • 0 led 2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P21 from P1 • 45 led | 81.0 | 70.01 | 2 | 0 | 12.5 | 1 | 45 |
| 9 | Michael Strickland4 | 60.6 | 64.2 | 57.41 | 53.78 (73 starts) | High | View racesSep 15, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P1 from P3 • 74 led Nov 12, 2023 • arca • Iowa 200 *Round 2* Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P3 from P2 • 27 led May 26, 2022 • xfinity • Corn Festival 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 Night • P13 from P2 • 7 led May 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P3 from P5 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P1 from P4 • 52 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P19 from P3 • 0 led | 68.22 | 52.69 | 8 | 2 | 7.5 | 4 | 206 |
| 10 | Tyler Lemon | 59.5 | 63.1 | 56.72 | 49.66 (14 starts) | Medium | View racesJan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P3 from P3 • 41 led | 50.0 | 79.28 | 1 | 0 | 3.0 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Robert Dudley | 56.4 | 55.8 | 65.04 | 40.81 (16 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P4 from P9 • 0 led Jan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P5 from P2 • 0 led Apr 21, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P6 from P7 • 29 led 2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P5 from P17 • 0 led | 50.0 | 58.14 | 4 | 0 | 5.0 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Bentley Glaser | 54.4 | 61.6 | 50.0 | 23.84 (7 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 79.66 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 13 | Eric Schaffer | 50.3 | 46.1 | 55.95 | 56.34 (12 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P5 from P1 • 129 led | 55.29 | 34.12 | 1 | 0 | 5.0 | 1 | 129 |
| 14 | Tony Sanders | 47.5 | 55.0 | 41.81 | 24.99 (29 starts) | High | View racesJan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P4 from P8 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P12 from P27 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P21 from P31 • 0 led | 50.0 | 57.3 | 3 | 0 | 12.33 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Brock Duty | 42.4 | 46.6 | 31.51 | 17.68 (23 starts) | Medium | View racesJan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P22 from P16 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P9 from P20 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P10 from P34 • 0 led | 50.0 | 73.5 | 3 | 0 | 13.67 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Brad Dove | 42.2 | 47.7 | 32.69 | 34.92 (66 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P18 from P25 • 0 led May 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P7 from P14 • 0 led Jan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P21 from P4 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P17 from P18 • 4 led Dec 11, 2022 • dirt • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P12 from P8 • 0 led Apr 21, 2024 • superlate • Iowa - Season 1 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P6 from P6 • 0 led | 51.27 | 45.39 | 8 | 0 | 11.75 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | Joshua Seigfried | 40.6 | 45.0 | 24.14 | 26.14 (12 starts) | Medium | View racesFeb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P25 from P15 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P18 from P7 • 0 led 2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P17 from P9 • 0 led | 50.0 | 74.5 | 3 | 0 | 20.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | John Hammond5 | 40.5 | 31.9 | 44.77 | 32.93 (56 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 15, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P12 from P8 • 0 led Nov 12, 2023 • arca • Iowa 200 *Round 2* Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P4 from P9 • 0 led May 26, 2022 • xfinity • Corn Festival 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 Night • P9 from P5 • 0 led May 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P14 from P20 • 4 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P10 from P3 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P14 from P16 • 0 led | 50.0 | 51.23 | 9 | 0 | 8.67 | 3 | 41 |
| 19 | Jeremy Bailey | 39.6 | 40.4 | 37.5 | 20.38 (15 starts) | Medium | View racesDec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P33 from P17 • 0 led | 50.0 | 46.61 | 1 | 0 | 33.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Mark Roettgen2 | 38.5 | 36.9 | 37.95 | 29.71 (81 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 15, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P14 from P12 • 0 led Nov 12, 2023 • arca • Iowa 200 *Round 2* Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P7 from P5 • 0 led May 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P12 from P12 • 0 led May 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P14 from P7 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P8 from P16 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P15 from P9 • 0 led | 50.0 | 37.17 | 9 | 0 | 10.56 | 2 | 17 |
| 21 | Brian Rayburn | 37.5 | 31.2 | 34.7 | 35.8 (43 starts) | Medium | View racesMay 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P9 from P11 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P26 from P25 • 0 led | 59.44 | 36.34 | 2 | 0 | 17.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Adam Dama | 33.4 | 15.3 | 50.0 | 15.65 (12 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 39.59 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 23 | Pat Green | 32.8 | 6.2 | 45.65 | 44.15 (20 starts) | Medium | View races2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P9 from P16 • 0 led | 50.0 | 50.29 | 1 | 0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Jerry Culver | 28.4 | 16.9 | 25.41 | 26.47 (60 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 15, 2023 • nextgen • Iowa 200 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P6 from P9 • 0 led Nov 12, 2023 • arca • Iowa 200 *Round 2* Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P9 from P8 • 0 led May 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P15 from P18 • 0 led May 13, 2023 • xfinity • Iowa 225 Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P11 from P6 • 0 led Jan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P13 from P14 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P16 from P22 • 0 led | 50.0 | 46.76 | 8 | 0 | 13.62 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | Logan Cogar | 28.4 | 6.9 | 50.0 | 26.03 (9 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 42.37 | 20.41 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 26 | Clint Hackett | 27.8 | 16.9 | 29.57 | 29.11 (41 starts) | High | View racesJan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P7 from P15 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P26 from P23 • 0 led 2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P13 from P12 • 0 led | 47.17 | 30.19 | 3 | 0 | 15.33 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Robert Church | 25.3 | 18.5 | 17.84 | 22.29 (59 starts) | High | View racesNov 12, 2023 • arca • Iowa 200 *Round 2* Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P11 from P6 • 0 led May 14, 2024 • trucks • Iowa 200 *Round 1* Oval - 2011 • P24 from P17 • 0 led Jan 11, 2025 • xfinity • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P11 from P6 • 0 led Feb 23, 2024 • nextgen • Iowa Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P20 from P11 • 0 led Dec 6, 2024 • nextgen • IOWA Iowa Speedway Oval - 2011 • P25 from P25 • 0 led 2026-10-17 • xfinity • Iowa • P20 from P3 • 0 led | 50.0 | 37.5 | 6 | 0 | 18.5 | 0 | 0 |
Updated from the site's official result and historical statistics on page load. Refresh after Admin Update All to recalculate. Drivers not represented in available official form may not appear.