Colby Hartung
0 wins in 8 verified races at this venue. Recent form: 87.8.

THE CHOP SHOP HYPE MACHINE • RACE WEEK
UPCOMING RACE BEING PROJECTED
Every forecast, driver ranking, probability, and historical comparison below is for this scheduled race.
Our official-data forecast sets the stage. The track will settle the argument.
0 wins in 8 verified races at this venue. Recent form: 87.8.
No verified venue starts yet • 85.6 form
6.4 points behind the forecast leaderNo verified venue starts yet • 87.8 form
8.3 points behind the forecast leaderJust 6.4 forecast-index points separate the top two.
60.6 forecast index • 11 verified track Top 5s
18 forecast drivers have matching venue results.
Evidence-based forecast, not a guaranteed result. Formula: 35% recent form + 30% same-venue history + 15% championship standings + 10% similar tracks + 10% consistency, incidents and reliability. No track history uses a neutral score rather than an invented result. Only drivers with current-series form are ranked.
Who is coming forward? Who might surprise? Who needs to turn things around? These picks come directly from official form and archive scores.
Best recent positions gained per race — an on-track momentum signal, not week-over-week ranking movement.
Recent positions lost per race. A warning sign, not a judgment of ability.
Strong positional gains among drivers ranked 6–15 in this forecast.
Lower-ranked drivers (16+) with the strongest recent Top-5 rates and track signals.
Drivers outside the Top 5 whose track/similar-track ratings outpace recent form.
Highest recent incident rates in the eligible field. A statistical risk signal, not a penalty or blame ruling.
Drivers outside the Top 4 whose overall forecast looks stronger than their recent form. These are not live Fantasy salaries.
The top five overall contenders based on the full five-factor forecast.
Model rankings meet race-week storylines. Each pick shows the supporting signal and confidence level.
Top-ranked five-factor forecast
70.5 forecast indexTrack rating stronger than recent form
43.5 forecast indexMidfield driver gaining positions
47.5 forecast indexStrongest mid-pack forecast
60.5 forecast indexStrong comparable-track rating
51.9 forecast indexElevated recent incident rate
24.0 forecast indexChampionship strength exceeds recent form
27.5 forecast indexRecent position losses invite a bounce-back
40.5 forecast indexHighest-ranked challenger outside Top 5
60.5 forecast indexStrong recent Top-5 consistency
59.8 forecast indexIncident-rate proxy; not an official MWI ranking
24.0 forecast indexTrack pedigree outside the favorites
43.5 forecast indexClosest challenger to the projected favorite
64.1 forecast indexLargest gap between venue history and form
59.8 forecast indexPositions gained per race; not lap-by-lap closing pace
47.5 forecast indexConsistency/form proxy, not pass-by-pass telemetry
70.5 forecast indexRelative qualifying estimate
70.5 forecast indexRecent Top-10 rate blended with field baseline
64.1 forecast indexForecasts are locked on their first pre-race publication. Comparisons appear only after official results are posted.
The report card will populate as races with saved forecasts become official.
For entertainment only: statistical model estimates, not bookmaker odds or wagering offers.
| DRIVER | WIN % ⓘ | TOP 10 % ⓘ | POLE % ⓘ | CONFIDENCE | INC / START ⓘ | CLOSING PROXY ⓘ | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Hartung | 18.9% | 53.2% | 16.5% | Medium | 5.0 | +1.2 positions/start | Based on 17 combined evidence starts |
| Joseph Causey | 10.0% | 57.9% | 13.9% | Medium | 8.6 | +10.0 positions/start | Based on 5 combined evidence starts |
| Eric Schaffer | 8.2% | 53.2% | 16.5% | Medium | 7.8 | -1.0 positions/start | Based on 7 combined evidence starts |
| Chad Coleman | 7.4% | 57.9% | 6.8% | Medium | 6.4 | -3.0 positions/start | Based on 6 combined evidence starts |
| Nathan Biggart | 7.0% | 37.9% | 4.6% | High | 6.4 | +1.0 positions/start | Based on 29 combined evidence starts |
| Michael Newbraugh | 7.0% | 47.9% | 5.0% | Medium | 4.6 | +9.4 positions/start | Based on 8 combined evidence starts |
| Brandon T Banks | 6.5% | 57.9% | 15.2% | High | 7.0 | +5.6 positions/start | Based on 13 combined evidence starts |
| Tyler Dalton | 5.9% | 27.9% | 4.1% | Medium | 6.4 | -11.0 positions/start | Based on 6 combined evidence starts |
| Logan Cogar | 4.9% | 57.9% | 4.2% | Medium | 9.6 | -0.4 positions/start | Based on 6 combined evidence starts |
| Doug Sigmon | 4.3% | 27.9% | 2.0% | Medium | 6.2 | +8.0 positions/start | Based on 5 combined evidence starts |
| Anthony Crownover | 2.9% | 47.9% | 2.3% | High | 7.2 | -3.4 positions/start | Based on 18 combined evidence starts |
| Brad Dove | 1.9% | 42.1% | 2.4% | Medium | 12.0 | +13.2 positions/start | Based on 27 combined evidence starts |
| Joey Gattina | 1.9% | 27.9% | 0.5% | High | 5.6 | -4.6 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Mark Roettgen2 | 1.8% | 27.9% | 1.5% | High | 6.8 | +5.6 positions/start | Based on 33 combined evidence starts |
| Jorge Rincon | 1.3% | 27.9% | 0.7% | Medium | 7.8 | +0.6 positions/start | Based on 10 combined evidence starts |
| Craig Parks | 1.3% | 17.9% | 0.1% | Medium | 8.0 | +1.0 positions/start | Based on 8 combined evidence starts |
| Brian Rayburn | 1.3% | 31.0% | 0.9% | Medium | 5.0 | -6.5 positions/start | Based on 21 combined evidence starts |
| Clint Hackett | 1.1% | 37.9% | 0.5% | High | 4.8 | +2.4 positions/start | Based on 24 combined evidence starts |
| Jerry Culver | 1.0% | 31.0% | 1.1% | Medium | 9.0 | +8.8 positions/start | Based on 30 combined evidence starts |
| Chris Fowler3 | 1.0% | 17.9% | 0.1% | Medium | 4.2 | +0.0 positions/start | Based on 5 combined evidence starts |
Most incidents: Robert Church (16.0 recent incidents/start, high confidence). Categories awaiting independently verified data: History Maker, Streak Watch, Pressure Cooker. MWI Watch currently uses incident rate as a proxy, not official claimed incidents or lost-poll decisions. No betting or wagering is offered.
8 archived track starts • 0 track wins • 87.8 recent form index
Recent form and competitiveness proxy. Not a qualifying-specific prediction.
0.2 recent laps led per start
13.2 positions gained per recent start
3 actual fan votes cast for R1 at Daytona (Oval).
VOTE FOR YOUR FAVORITE →Highest-ranked drivers in the available forecast pool.
Simple View is designed for quick reading. Switch to Full Data for the complete five-factor breakdown, then open a race's evidence.
| RANK | DRIVER | FORECAST ⓘ | FORM ⓘ | TRACK HISTORY ⓘ | SIMILAR TRACKS ⓘ | CONFIDENCE | RACE EVIDENCE | CHAMPIONSHIP ⓘ | DISCIPLINE ⓘ | STARTS | WINS | AVG FINISH | TOP 5 | LAPS LED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Hartung | 70.5 | 87.8 | 59.89 | 54.48 (5 starts) | Medium | View racesOct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P4 from P2 • 6 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P3 from P27 • 0 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P12 from P10 • 0 led Jan 7, 2026 • arca • DAYTONA Daytona International Speedway Oval • P2 from P12 • 4 led Feb 9, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P7 from P12 • 0 led Feb 3, 2025 • road • Daytona Road Daytona International Speedway Road Course • P4 from P0 • 0 led | 50.0 | 88.41 | 8 | 0 | 5.5 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Joseph Causey | 64.1 | 85.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 (0 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 66.1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Eric Schaffer | 62.2 | 87.8 | 50.0 | 20.26 (3 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 69.69 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Chad Coleman | 61.1 | 76.3 | 50.0 | 37.5 (1 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 81.5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Nathan Biggart | 60.6 | 71.3 | 55.25 | 43.82 (13 starts) | High | View racesSep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P2 from P18 • 0 led Oct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P2 from P20 • 4 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P14 from P12 • 1 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P25 from P3 • 0 led Jul 9, 2026 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P22 from P10 • 0 led Jul 9, 2023 • arca • Daytona 200 Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P2 from P13 • 1 led | 50.0 | 71.69 | 19 | 5 | 10.84 | 11 | 170 |
| 6 | Michael Newbraugh | 60.5 | 72.2 | 50.0 | 44.14 (3 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 82.8 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 7 | Brandon T Banks | 59.8 | 86.7 | 39.66 | 22.66 (5 starts) | High | View racesAug 1, 2025 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P6 from P2 • 14 led Apr 17, 2026 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P7 from P10 • 0 led 2026-04-17 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P7 from P10 • 0 led | 50.0 | 78.36 | 3 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Tyler Dalton | 58.8 | 69.6 | 50.0 | 44.87 (1 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 74.66 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 9 | Logan Cogar | 56.9 | 70.0 | 50.0 | 43.32 (1 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 55.92 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 10 | Doug Sigmon | 55.7 | 60.4 | 50.0 | 50.0 (0 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 70.18 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 11 | Anthony Crownover | 51.9 | 61.9 | 32.03 | 61.28 (5 starts) | High | View racesNov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P17 from P8 • 13 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P31 from P12 • 0 led Jul 9, 2026 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P20 from P4 • 3 led Feb 7, 2025 • nextgen • Daytona Road Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Road • P13 from P12 • 0 led Feb 3, 2025 • road • Daytona Road Daytona International Speedway Road Course • P5 from P0 • 0 led Aug 29, 2025 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Road • P4 from P9 • 0 led | 50.0 | 70.17 | 8 | 0 | 15.0 | 2 | 21 |
| 12 | Brad Dove | 47.5 | 62.8 | 36.62 | 31.44 (12 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 25, 2022 • dirt • Daytona 200 Daytona International Speedway Oval • P12 from P6 • 0 led Sep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P18 from P16 • 0 led Sep 18, 2022 • dirt • Daytona Road Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Road • P12 from P16 • 0 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P10 from P10 • 1 led Mar 29, 2025 • xfinity • DAYTONA ***ROUND ONE*** Daytona International Speedway Oval • P4 from P1 • 3 led Jun 7, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P19 from P3 • 0 led | 50.0 | 39.16 | 18 | 0 | 12.67 | 5 | 16 |
| 13 | Joey Gattina | 47.3 | 43.3 | 43.88 | 37.5 (1 starts) | High | View racesDec 13, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P18 from P16 • 0 led Aug 1, 2025 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P30 from P4 • 2 led Apr 17, 2026 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P2 from P4 • 0 led 2026-04-17 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P2 from P4 • 0 led | 50.0 | 77.43 | 4 | 0 | 13.0 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Mark Roettgen2 | 46.8 | 56.7 | 28.55 | 41.58 (14 starts) | High | View racesSep 25, 2022 • dirt • Daytona 200 Daytona International Speedway Oval • P20 from P7 • 1 led Sep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P16 from P4 • 1 led Sep 18, 2022 • dirt • Daytona Road Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Road • P15 from P10 • 0 led Oct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P16 from P8 • 17 led Nov 29, 2022 • trucks • Daytona 250 Night (Stages - 20/40/100) Daytona Oval • P15 from P28 • 0 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P13 from P25 • 32 led | 50.0 | 67.07 | 23 | 0 | 13.57 | 2 | 207 |
| 15 | Jorge Rincon | 43.5 | 45.9 | 39.74 | 28.02 (3 starts) | Medium | View racesJul 9, 2026 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P11 from P27 • 0 led 2026-07-09 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P11 from P27 • 0 led | 50.0 | 52.56 | 2 | 0 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Craig Parks | 43.5 | 24.1 | 62.67 | 44.48 (1 starts) | Medium | View racesApr 17, 2026 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P4 from P23 • 0 led 2026-04-17 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P4 from P23 • 0 led | 50.0 | 43.12 | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Brian Rayburn | 43.4 | 50.4 | 26.84 | 32.68 (7 starts) | Medium | View racesOct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P6 from P6 • 0 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P19 from P1 • 11 led Mar 29, 2025 • xfinity • DAYTONA ***ROUND ONE*** Daytona International Speedway Oval • P17 from P3 • 16 led Jul 9, 2026 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P10 from P3 • 0 led Jan 7, 2026 • arca • DAYTONA Daytona International Speedway Oval • P18 from P1 • 0 led Jan 28, 2023 • xfinity • Daytona 225 Night Daytona International Speedway Oval • P7 from P16 • 0 led | 50.0 | 69.88 | 12 | 0 | 14.58 | 1 | 27 |
| 18 | Clint Hackett | 42.3 | 42.2 | 33.6 | 26.52 (6 starts) | High | View racesSep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P4 from P1 • 1 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P28 from P30 • 0 led Mar 29, 2025 • xfinity • DAYTONA ***ROUND ONE*** Daytona International Speedway Oval • P1 from P17 • 23 led Jun 7, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P20 from P21 • 0 led Jul 9, 2026 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P28 from P22 • 0 led Jan 7, 2026 • arca • DAYTONA Daytona International Speedway Oval • P19 from P7 • 0 led | 50.0 | 73.33 | 14 | 1 | 15.71 | 4 | 25 |
| 19 | Jerry Culver | 41.3 | 52.9 | 19.29 | 38.77 (9 starts) | Medium | View racesSep 25, 2022 • dirt • Daytona 200 Daytona International Speedway Oval • P10 from P8 • 5 led Sep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P20 from P20 • 0 led Nov 29, 2022 • trucks • Daytona 250 Night (Stages - 20/40/100) Daytona Oval • P20 from P24 • 0 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P27 from P16 • 0 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P14 from P17 • 10 led Mar 29, 2025 • xfinity • DAYTONA ***ROUND ONE*** Daytona International Speedway Oval • P19 from P19 • 0 led | 50.0 | 56.55 | 21 | 0 | 17.57 | 0 | 41 |
| 20 | Chris Fowler3 | 41.2 | 15.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 (0 starts) | Medium | Unverified | 50.0 | 82.5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 21 | Mark Jorgensen Jr | 40.5 | 28.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 (0 starts) | Low | Unverified | 50.0 | 28.39 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 22 | R.B. Turner | 40.2 | 38.5 | 25.45 | 56.72 (1 starts) | High | View racesSep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P19 from P12 • 0 led Mar 29, 2025 • xfinity • DAYTONA ***ROUND ONE*** Daytona International Speedway Oval • P14 from P4 • 12 led Jun 7, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P10 from P4 • 0 led Dec 13, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P6 from P24 • 0 led 2026-09-19 • xfinity • Daytona - Day • P19 from P12 • 0 led | 50.0 | 59.63 | 5 | 0 | 13.6 | 0 | 12 |
| 23 | Michael Strickland4 | 39.7 | 23.3 | 44.08 | 49.0 (14 starts) | High | View racesSep 25, 2022 • dirt • Daytona 200 Daytona International Speedway Oval • P5 from P1 • 1 led Sep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P15 from P19 • 10 led Sep 18, 2022 • dirt • Daytona Road Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Road • P2 from P3 • 9 led Oct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P5 from P4 • 8 led Nov 29, 2022 • trucks • Daytona 250 Night (Stages - 20/40/100) Daytona Oval • P11 from P8 • 0 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P2 from P3 • 3 led | 50.0 | 58.89 | 22 | 0 | 8.77 | 7 | 152 |
| 24 | Allen Krier | 35.8 | 14.4 | 50.0 | 50.0 (0 starts) | Low | Unverified | 50.0 | 32.84 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 25 | Michael Bollinger | 34.0 | 27.8 | 37.5 | 27.24 (3 starts) | Medium | View racesDec 13, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P38 from P28 • 0 led | 50.0 | 28.02 | 1 | 0 | 38.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Alex Thompson2 | 29.1 | 22.6 | 31.98 | 6.59 (4 starts) | Medium | View racesOct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P22 from P17 • 0 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P20 from P30 • 0 led | 50.0 | 34.43 | 2 | 0 | 21.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Ron Hollifield | 27.5 | 7.4 | 38.62 | 36.64 (2 starts) | Medium | View racesDec 13, 2025 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P3 from P13 • 0 led Aug 29, 2025 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Road • P22 from P22 • 0 led Apr 17, 2026 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P9 from P31 • 0 led 2026-04-17 • nextgen • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P9 from P31 • 0 led | 50.0 | 21.62 | 4 | 0 | 10.75 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Robert Church | 24.0 | 13.7 | 17.94 | 17.85 (13 starts) | High | View racesSep 19, 2026 • xfinity • Daytona International Speedway Oval • P21 from P6 • 0 led Oct 3, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Night ***Round 1*** Daytona Oval • P18 from P18 • 0 led Nov 22, 2024 • nextgen • Daytona Daytona International Speedway Oval • P4 from P37 • 0 led Nov 21, 2023 • trucks • Daytona 200 Daytona Oval • P22 from P11 • 0 led Mar 29, 2025 • xfinity • DAYTONA ***ROUND ONE*** Daytona International Speedway Oval • P20 from P15 • 0 led Jul 9, 2026 • nationals • Daytona International Speedway Oval - 2008 • P27 from P19 • 0 led | 50.0 | 45.09 | 17 | 0 | 19.76 | 1 | 7 |
Updated from the site's official result and historical statistics on page load. Refresh after Admin Update All to recalculate. Drivers not represented in available official form may not appear.